Simulating Adaptive Responses (Research)

Machine learning helps prepare necessary adaptations to warming conditions for farmers and supply chains

Image credit: Adobe Stock

Problem

How can farmers and supply chains be prepared to adapt their practices to a warming climate?

The average temperature in the United States has increased by approximately 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit in this century compared to the last century.
Anticipated increases in temperature will likely inﬂuence geographical distribution and yield of grain crops.

Findings

Using machine learning—a form of artiﬁcial intelligence that enables a computer system to learn from data—a team of plant and meteorology scientists evaluated more than three decades of county-level crop yield data across 18 Midwest and Great Plains states. From this analysis, the team expects that over the next 40 to 50 years, the best conditions for corn and soybean production will shift northward, from Iowa and Illinois to Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Impact

The models can simulate different growing scenarios with variations in, for instance, atmospheric humidity and exposure to extreme temperatures that can impact established practices in planting dates or establishing risk thresholds. The research provides estimates of changes in the best climatic locations for corn and soybean as well as the uncertainty in the modeled estimates. This broad prediction can help all parties along the U.S. grain supply chain be prepared if this shift, which is currently in progress, continues in the coming decades.

Related Research Area: Environmental Resilience

Research Credit

Team

Armen Kemanian, Alexis Hoffman, Chris Forest

Participating Departments

Plant Science

Partners

Penn State College of Earth of Mineral Sciences

Competitive Funding

National Science Foundation/Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM), USDA NIFA (Agriculture and Food Research Initiative), U.S. Department of Energy

Federal and State Appropriations

USDA NIFA Hatch Project PEN04710, Accession #1020049

Emerging Discoveries

Warming Midwest conditions may result in corn, soybean production moving north

May 04, 2020

If warming continues unabated in the Midwest, in 50 years we can expect the best conditions for corn and soybean production to have shifted from Iowa and Illinois to Minnesota and the Dakotas, according to Penn State researchers.

Research team to study food resilience in the face of catastrophic global events

June 08, 2020

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have all become aware of how a global crisis can affect our access to food. But imagine the food security impacts of an even worse scenario — an all-out nuclear war, a large asteroid strike or a supervolcano eruption. Such catastrophes could block out sunlight, alter rainfall patterns and contaminate water supplies, which could drastically affect our food systems. An interdisciplinary team of Penn State professors has received $3 million from Open Philanthropy to study food resilience in the face of such catastrophic global events.