Planning for Disruptions

Problem

What can communities do to prepare for demands on medical resources and assess the costs and benefits of mitigation policies in the midst of a pandemic?

A small fishing region such as Bristol Bay, Alaska, will typically increase its local population by about three times during the summer fishing season. The town could face potentially huge losses—about $1.5 billion—if the season was canceled due to pandemic mitigation policies.

Findings

As an extension of an existing project in the area, scientists conducted surveys with fishery participants and local residents to better understand the costs and benefits of various mitigation policies. They also evaluated the demand for medical resources and assessed risk perceptions, responses, and preferences to develop pandemic-preparedness scenarios.

Impact

This research will help inform residents and local policymakers about the 2020 season and prepare for the 2021 season and another possible wave of COVID-19. Socioecological modeling can estimate the probability of a COVID-19 introduction and the rate of spread under various parameters, including delayed season openings or partial closures of the commercial fishery.

• The models also provide projections on how quickly a rea resources could be overwhelmed by an uncontrolled outbreak, as well as under various scenarios of social distancing, both within the fishing fleet while on shore and for the community at large.

Related Research Area:  Community Resilience and Capacity

Research Credit

Team

• Guangqing Chi, Davin Holen, Lance Howe, Kevin Berry, Hannah Henninghausen, Todd Radenbaugh, Gabe Dunham, Luke Smith, Ann Tickamyer, Heather Randell

Participating Departments

• Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education

Partners

• City of Dillingham, Alaska
• University of Alaska, Fairbanks
• University of Alaska, Anchorage

Competitive Funding

• National Science Foundation (Office of Polar Programs)

Federal and State Appropriations

• USDA NIFA Hatch Multistate Project PEN04623, Accession #1013257

Emerging Discoveries

Project reveals pandemic perceptions in Alaskan fishing community

March 11, 2024

Penn State researchers examined community member's COVID-19 perceptions in Bristol Bay, Alaska, home to the world’s largest commercial salmon fishery, and found perceptions of risk varied across race/ethnicity groups by residency and income.

Project to study pandemic impacts on Alaskan salmon season

June 26, 2020

Penn State is part of a research team conducting surveys with fishery participants and residents to better understand the costs and benefits of varied mitigation policies and developing pandemic preparedness scenarios in Bristol Bay, Alaska, home to the world's largest commercial sockeye salmon fishery.