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Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (Bay Land Change Model)

Objective The Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (Bay Land Change Model) provides past and current land uses, as well as projects future land changes to 2030.

Developer The Bay Land Change Model was developed by US Geological Survey (USGS), USEPA, the Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Shippensburg University and a private consultant by combining a growth allocation model (GAMe) with a cellular automata model (SLUETH).

Contact information Peter Claggett, pclaggett@chesapeakebay.net, 410-267-5771, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Ave., Suite 112, Annapolis, MD 21403.

Inputs The Bay Land Change Model utilizes inputs from GAMe to project future urban development by fitting total housing unit trends over the 1990s to a Compertz Curve (exponential S-Shaped). County population projections are converted to county scale estimates of total housing demand to adjust the housing unit forecasts. The SLUETH growth model extrapolates historic rates and patterns of urban into the future using satellite derived imagery of 1990 and 2000 impervious cover in a 30 m resolution. developed growth

Outputs The Bay Land Change Model provides an annual time series of land uses to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model, as well as projects land uses out to 2030.

User The Bay Land Change Model is used by USGS, USEPA and the Chesapeake Bay Program Office for the development and implementation of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL.

Scales of Relevance The Bay Land Change Model provides data at the Bay Watershed Model segment scale.

Other The Bay Land Change Model also includes a Sewer Model to estimate the population on sewer and septic in the years 2000 and 2030.

Sponsors/funders USGS, USEPA. and the Chesapeake Bay Program Office